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RAZGOVOR

Razgovor za Money & Macro

U razgovoru za kanal Money & Macro na YouTubeu ESB‑ov glavni ekonomist Philip R. Lane osvrnuo se na posljednjih pet godina monetarne politike ESB‑a. Govorio je i o izgledima za gospodarstvo i inflaciju.

Razgovor

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

DOGAĐAJ 8. kolovoza 2024.

Ponovno organiziramo Europa Open Air

ESB i radiotelevizija Hessischer Rundfunk sa zadovoljstvom najavljuju ovogodišnji koncert Europa Open Air, koji će se održati 22. kolovoza. Simfonijski orkestar Frankfurtskog radija izvodit će bezvremensku orkestralnu glazbu u parku Weseler Werft u Frankfurtu, našemu matičnom gradu.

Priopćenje za javnost
EKONOMSKI BILTEN 1. kolovoza 2024.

Ekonomski bilten ESB‑a

Ova publikacija sadržava informacije o ekonomskim i monetarnim kretanjima na kojima se temelje odluke Upravnog vijeća o politikama. Objavljuje se osam puta godišnje, dva tjedna poslije svakog sastanka o monetarnoj politici.

Novi broj Ekonomskog biltena
PODCAST 8. kolovoza 2024.

ESB‑ov ljetni podcast, 1. epizoda

Što je europski nadzor banaka i kako je povezan s našim bankovnim računima? Kakve to veze ima s nogometom? Voditeljica Stefania Secola razgovara o tim i drugim pitanjima s članicom Nadzornog odbora Elizabeth McCaul u prvoj epizodi ESB‑ova ljetnog podcasta.

ESB‑ov podcast
23 July 2024
Welcome address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Joint ECB-IMF-IMFER Conference 2024
Annexes
23 July 2024
18 July 2024
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 18 July 2024
4 July 2024
Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the National Conference of Statistics on official statistics at the time of artificial intelligence
English
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4 July 2024
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Master in Economics and Finance (MEF) 2024 Lecture in Naples
1 July 2024
Introductory speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal
26 July 2024
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Christian Siedenbiedel on 22 July 2024
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
23 July 2024
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Sergio Rivas
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
11 June 2024
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf, Stefan Reccius, Isabella Bufacchi, Guillaume Benoit and Alexandre Counis in Paris on 7 June 2024
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (4) +
27 May 2024
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Arnold on 24 May 2024
24 May 2024
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Steffen Clement on 16 May 2024
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
31 July 2024
Central banks choose their words very carefully. And rightly so – policy makers’ wording can move markets and, eventually, the economy. This ECB Blog post shows how unexpected changes in communication influence growth and inflation.
Details
JEL Code
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other
23 July 2024
Repo markets are vital for banks to source liquidity and securities. They also represent an essential link in the monetary policy transmission chain. While the Eurosystem is in the process of reducing its market footprint, repo markets are going through a phase of change. The ECB Blog looks at dynamics in this market.
Details
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
10 July 2024
The green transition will significantly increase demand for key minerals over the coming decades. The impact on energy prices will ultimately depend on how supply adjusts. The ECB Blog looks at the geopolitical risks involved.
Details
JEL Code
D43 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F55 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Institutional Arrangements
4 July 2024
Firms’ inflation expectations are key for monetary policy makers. The ECB Blog presents new survey data on these expectations, evidence on what influences them, how they change when new information becomes available, and if they matter for the plans and choices firms make.
Details
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
27 June 2024
Europe needs trillions of euros to manage climate change, become digital and defend itself. How can EU and national policymakers support these projects? This Blog post discusses the options in times of low growth and high public debt levels.
Details
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
8 August 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2973
Details
Abstract
Monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve System in the US are widely recognised to have spillover effects on the rest of the world. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric effects of US monetary policy shocks on macro-financial outcomes in emerging market economies (EMEs). We shed light on how domestic factors shape external monetary policy spillover effects using indicators on the macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy stances of EMEs. We find that a surprise tightening of monetary policy in the US leads to an immediate tightening of financial conditions which leads to a decline in activity and prices in EMEs over one year. Importantly, these effects are amplified in periods of high vulnerabilities and attenuated when EMEs follow a prudent monetary policy stance. Our findings help explain the greater resilience of many EMEs to the Fed’s post-COVID-19 tightening cycle, and highlight the benefits of the broad improvements of monetary policy frameworks in these countries.
JEL Code
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
7 August 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2972
Details
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the presence of non-linearities in the transmission of geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks. Our methodology involves incorporating a non-linear function of the identified shock into a VARX model and examining its impulse response functions and historical decomposition. We find that the primary transmission channel of such shocks is associated with heightened uncertainty,which significantly escalates only with substantially large GPR shocks (i.e., above 4 standard deviations). This increase in uncertainty prompts precautionary saving behaviors, exerting a strong impact on consumption and reducing activity. The response of inflation is more subdued, reflecting both diminished demand and heightened uncertainty, which influence prices in opposing directions.
JEL Code
C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
D80 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
H56 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→National Security and War
7 August 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2971
Details
Abstract
Households' income heterogeneity is important to explain consumption dynamics in response to aggregate macro uncertainty: an increase in uncertainty generates a consumption drop that is stronger for income poorer households. At the same time, labor markets are strongly responsive to macro uncertainty as the unemployment rate and the job separation rate rise, while the job finding rate falls. A heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market can account for these empirical findings. The mechanism at play is a feedback loop between income poorer households who, being subject to higher unemployment risk, contract consumption more in response to heightened uncertainty, and firms that post fewer vacancies following a drop in demand.
JEL Code
E12 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→Keynes, Keynesian, Post-Keynesian
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J64 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
6 August 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2970
Details
Abstract
We build a balance sheet-based model to capture run risk, i.e., a reduced potential to raise capital from liquidity buffers under stress, driven by depositor scrutiny and further fuelled by fire sales in response to withdrawals. The setup is inspired by the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) meltdown in March 2023 and our model may serve as a supervisory analysis tool to monitor build-up of balance sheet vulnerabilities. Specifically, we analyze which characteristics of the balance sheet are critical in order for banking system regulators to adequately assess run risk and resilience. By bringing a time series of SVB’s balance sheet data to our model, we are able to demonstrate how changes in the funding and respective asset composition made SVB prone to run risk, as they were increasingly relying on heldto-maturity, aka hidden-to-maturity, accounting standards, masking revaluation losses in securities portfolios. Finally, we formulate a tractable optimisation problem to address the designation of heldto-maturity assets and quantify banks’ ability to hold these assets without resorting to remarking. By calibrating this to SVB’s balance sheet data, we shed light on the bank’s funding risk and impliedrisk tolerance in the years 2020–22 leading up to its collapse.
JEL Code
C62 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
6 August 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2969
Details
Abstract
Combining euro-area credit register and carbon emission data, we provide evidence of a climate risk-taking channel in banks’ lending policies. Banks charge higher interest rates to firms featuring greater carbon emissions, and lower rates to firms committing to lower emissions, controlling for their probability of default. Both effects are larger for banks committed to decarbonization. Consistently with the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, tighter policy induces banks to increase both credit risk premia and carbon emission premia, and reduce lending to high emission firms more than to low emission ones. While restrictive monetary policy increases the cost of credit and reduces lending to all firms, its contractionary effect is milder for firms with low emissions and those that commit to decarbonization.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q52 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Pollution Control Adoption Costs, Distributional Effects, Employment Effects
Q53 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Air Pollution, Water Pollution, Noise, Hazardous Waste, Solid Waste, Recycling
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
5 August 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2968
Details
Abstract
This paper uses a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) framework to estimate the pass-through of unexpected gas price supply shocks on HICP inflation in the euro area and its four largest economies. In comparison to oil price shocks, gas price shocks have approximately one-third smaller pass-through to headline inflation. Country-specific results indicate gas price increases matter more for German, Spanish and Italian inflation than for French inflation, hinging on the reliance on energy commodities in consumption, production, and different electricity prices regulation. Consistent with gas becoming a prominent energy commodity in the euro area, including time-variation through a time-varying parameter BVAR demonstrates a substantially larger impact of gas price shocks on HICP inflation in recent years. The empirical estimates are then rationalized using a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE) model augmented with energy. In the model, the elasticity of substitution between gas and non-energy inputs plays a critical role in explaining the inflationary effects of gas shocks. A decomposition of the recent inflation dynamics into the model structural shocks reveals a larger contribution of gas shocks compared to oil shocks.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
5 August 2024
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 354
Details
Abstract
The monitoring and analysis of the business cycle is a central element of inputs to monetary policy decision-making. This report contributes to the analysis of business cycles in the euro area in three dimensions. First, in terms of business cycle dating, it proposes automated procedures to characterise the business cycle situation of the euro area and its main components, across countries and sectors. Second, it investigates how business cycle synchronisation has evolved over the last 20 years. Third, it analyses business cycle drivers from several perspectives, including the financial and international dimension, interconnectedness, demand and supply. It also features an early analysis of the economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather than reaching strong conclusions on the history of the euro area business cycle, the primary aim of the report is to promote sound methods and approaches that are part of ongoing enhancements of the analytical infrastructure designed to analyse hard-to-ascertain questions on the nature and characteristics of euro area business cycle dynamics.
JEL Code
C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
2 August 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2967
Details
Abstract
We study how monetary policy shapes the aggregate and distributional effects of an energy price shock. Based on the observed heterogeneity in consumption exposures to energy and household wealth, we build a quantitative small open-economy HANK model that matches salient features of the Euro Area data. Our model incorporates energy as both a consumption good for households with non-homothetic preferences as well as a factor input into production with input complementarities. Independently of policy energy price shocks always reduce aggregate consumption. Households with little wealth are more adversely affected through both a decline in labor income as well as negative direct price effects. Active policy responses raising rates in response to inflation amplifies aggregate outcomes through a reduction in aggregate demand, but speeds up the recovery by enabling households to rebuild wealth through higher returns on savings. However, low-wealth households are further adversely affected as they have little savings to rebuild wealth from and instead loose due to further declining labor income.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
2 August 2024
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES
Details
Abstract
We study whether it is desirable for the central bank to supply reserves abundantly, i.e. beyond the level that satisfies financial institutions’ aggregate liquidity needs. Using a theoretical framework, we demonstrate that abundant reserves would help fulfil the private sector’s demand for safe and liquid assets, because reserves affect financial institutions’ leverage constraints. More specifically, systematic central bank purchases of medium-term government bonds from financial institutions would relax those institutions’ leverage constraints and allow them to expand their balance sheets and issue more private liquidity, in the form of deposits. However, a very large increase in the average size of its balance sheet would expose the central bank to the risk of large financial losses. On balance, only amoderately larger supply of reserves than the level that satisfies financial institutions’ aggregate liquidity needs appears desirable.
JEL Code
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
1 August 2024
EBA/ECB REPORT
1 August 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2966
Details
Abstract
In this paper, we propose a new framework to jointly calibrate cyclical and structural capital requirements. For this, we integrate a non-linear macroeconomic model and a stress test model. In the macroeconomic model, the severity of the scenarios depends on the level of cyclical risk. Risk-related scenarios are used as inputs for the stress test model. Banks’ capital losses derived from a scenario based on a reference level of risk are used to set the structural requirement. Additional losses associated with the current risk scenario are used to set the cyclical requirement. This approach provides a transparent method to strike the balance between cyclical and structural requirements.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
1 August 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
1 August 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box presents the main results of the 2024 Ageing Report for the European Union Member States. Ageing-related fiscal costs in the euro area are projected to rise by 1.4 percentage points by 2070, increasing from 24.1% of GDP to stand at 25.6% of GDP, with notable variance across countries. These costs are a key consideration in assessing long-term fiscal sustainability.
JEL Code
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
1 August 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024
Details
Abstract
Since the 1980s the divergence between the returns on capital and on safe assets has increased. This box examines what might account for this wedge and finds that, while the capital risk premium is the main factor, partly reflecting the demand for safe assets and a general decline in their supply, mark-ups also play a role. Since the pandemic, divergence has increased in the euro area, while it has remained broadly stable, albeit wider, in the United States, with mark-ups playing a greater role. During this period, the contribution from the risk premium has marginally increased in the euro area, whereas mark-ups have slightly decreased. In the United States, both the risk premium and mark-ups are largely unchanged. The elevated risk premium, to the extent that it reflects capital market imperfections, is one potential explanation for subdued investment levels in the euro area, which also pose a challenge to meeting the substantial investment needed to advance the green transition.
JEL Code
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
1 August 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024
Details
Abstract
Available surveys of selling price expectations of firms for the euro area point to price dynamics that have substantially moderated after the recent large inflationary shock, albeit with a more sluggish adjustment for services than for goods. This box focuses on services and investigates the leading indicator properties of the forward-looking survey data provided by the European Commission. These data tend to anticipate notable turning points in services inflation. In addition, in a forecasting exercise, we find that their leading properties manifest in a non-linear way and are particularly useful in unusual times, such as during the recent inflation spike.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
1 August 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024
Details
Abstract
Euro area inflation differentials rose sharply during the pandemic and the energy crisis but have since largely returned to previous levels. Monitoring the evolution and nature of inflation differentials is informative when assessing the transmission of the single monetary policy. This box puts the recent developments in inflation dispersion into perspective. Headline inflation and its subcomponents have all experienced considerable divergences across countries, with energy and food inflation playing a significant role. However, with a few exceptions, these temporarily sizeable differentials did not result in substantial changes in relative price levels across countries.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
1 August 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box considers the outlook for euro area business investment growth in 2024, as inferred from recent surveys. While suggesting a muted outlook for business investment growth this year, the surveys reveal considerable cross-country and cross-sectoral variation. Southern euro area countries and sectors with stronger demand appear more inclined to expand investment, whereas investment intentions in energy-intensive sectors have become weaker since the 2022-23 energy crisis. While investment priorities have changed somewhat in the face of recent shocks, scope remains for considerable expansion in business investment, not least related to the green and digital transitions.
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
1 August 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024
Details
Abstract
A combination of various adverse shocks has contributed to productivity growth being suppressed in the euro area over the last four years. In the first quarter of 2024 productivity per person employed was 0.7% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019 and productivity per hour worked was just 0.7% higher. The pandemic, along with disruptions in global supply chains and the rise in energy prices from 2021, which were aggravated by the repercussions from the Russian war in Ukraine, have all contributed to a slowdown in productivity growth. While there are some differences, the slowdown is broad-based across sectors and the five largest euro area economies. A shift-share analysis shows that the documented slowdown in productivity is the result of within-sector developments and not of a reallocation of labour to less productive sectors.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
1 August 2024
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024
Details
Abstract
Based on granular data at the product level, this box discusses whether and how the euro area and the United States have modified their import sourcing strategies since 2016, the role played by geopolitical tensions and the potential impact on import prices. It considers two different, but not mutually exclusive, strategies: increasing the number of sourcing countries and reducing the import market share of the main supplier country per product. Data suggest that both regions have increased, on average, the number of sourcing countries, particularly for those products mostly imported from geopolitically distant countries. Broadening the number of supplier countries has come at a cost, however, it has affected only a small share of total imports, with modest implications for inflation and the terms of trade. At the same time, evidence of a reduction in the import share of the main supplier country is more mixed and is generally associated with a shift towards cheaper – and not necessarily geopolitically closer – countries, suggesting the prevalence of cost considerations over supply-chain resilience and national security concerns.
JEL Code
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
31 July 2024
LEGAL ACT

Kamatne stope

mogućnost granične posudbe od središnje banke 4,50 %
glavne operacije refinanciranja (nepromjenjiva kamatna stopa) 4,25 %
stalno raspoloživa mogućnost deponiranja 3,75 %
12. lipnja 2024. Prethodne ključne kamatne stope ESB‑a

Stopa inflacije

Interaktivni grafikoni o inflaciji

Tečajevi

USD US dollar 1.0930
JPY Japanese yen 159.74
GBP Pound sterling 0.86093
CHF Swiss franc 0.9368
Posljednji put posuvremenjeno: 8. kolovoza 2024. Tečajevi eura