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2023 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2023 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 June 2024 June 2025 2028
Mean point estimate 5.5 2.7 2.2 2.8 2.2 2.1
Standard deviation 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3
Number of replies 52 52 43 42 33 41
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 June 2024 June 2025 2028
<-1.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.40.9
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.50.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.21.0
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 1.2 2.2 1.2 2.32.3
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 2.5 4.1 2.1 4.64.6
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 4.8 9.4 4.3 9.810.5
1.5 to 1.9% 0.1 9.6 20.6 8.5 18.019.2
2.0 to 2.4% 0.1 18.3 27.2 15.0 23.827.8
2.5 to 2.9% 0.5 23.1 16.9 21.9 17.716.6
3.0 to 3.4% 1.3 18.1 8.5 18.4 9.58.0
3.5 to 3.9% 3.6 10.7 4.2 10.5 5.23.7
4.0 to 4.4% 4.8 4.5 2.3 7.6 3.12.3
4.5 to 4.9% 15.4 3.3 1.3 4.4 1.81.1
>5.0% 74.2 2.5 1.6 4.7 2.21.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q3 core inflation forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 June 2024 June 2025 2028
Mean point estimate 5.1 3.1 2.3 3.1 2.4 2.1
Standard deviation 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6
Number of replies 38 38 33 34 29 31
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 June 2024 June 2025 2028
<-1.0% 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.00.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.30.6
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.81.9
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.3 2.95.1
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 2.7 9.6 2.8 8.612.9
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 6.9 19.8 7.1 17.922.8
2.0 to 2.4% 0.2 13.3 29.6 11.9 25.728.2
2.5 to 2.9% 0.8 23.1 16.5 20.6 18.413.3
3.0 to 3.4% 1.8 22.6 8.7 19.2 10.06.8
3.5 to 3.9% 4.8 13.0 4.1 13.2 5.22.9
4.0 to 4.4% 12.0 7.1 2.2 7.9 3.01.7
4.5 to 4.9% 29.7 4.7 1.2 5.9 1.81.1
>5.0% 50.6 4.9 4.2 9.2 5.32.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 2024 Q1 2025 Q1 2028
Mean point estimate 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.4 1.3
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 53 53 44 48 34 38
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 2024 Q1 2025 Q1 2028
<-1.0% 1.0 1.8 0.6 4.5 2.61.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 2.8 2.5 1.2 4.2 2.81.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 9.6 5.0 2.2 8.3 4.42.8
0.0 to 0.4% 24.0 11.1 5.9 18.2 12.36.9
0.5 to 0.9% 36.7 18.6 11.6 22.6 15.915.4
1.0 to 1.4% 18.4 26.6 25.6 21.0 21.524.9
1.5 to 1.9% 4.7 19.5 27.6 10.8 18.324.5
2.0 to 2.4% 1.6 8.5 14.3 4.6 10.812.3
2.5 to 2.9% 0.6 3.5 6.5 2.2 5.25.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.2 2.72.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.9 1.81.6
>4.0% 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.91.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 May 2024 May 2025 2028
Mean point estimate 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 48 48 37 32 25 35
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 May 2024 May 2025 2028
<4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.20.9
4.0 to 4.4% 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.00.7
4.5 to 4.9% 0.4 0.7 1.5 1.0 1.91.8
5.0 to 5.4% 1.1 2.3 3.3 3.2 4.25.3
5.5 to 5.9% 3.3 7.1 9.3 8.5 10.412.6
6.0 to 6.4% 29.5 23.2 25.0 22.8 24.224.5
6.5 to 6.9% 47.2 32.9 26.4 30.9 25.822.8
7.0 to 7.4% 12.9 20.4 16.8 17.6 15.214.2
7.5 to 7.9% 2.8 7.9 9.8 8.8 8.37.6
8.0 to 8.4% 1.2 2.8 3.9 3.9 3.94.0
8.5 to 8.9% 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.5 2.02.3
9.0 to 9.4% 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.11.4
9.5 to 9.9% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.40.7
10.0 to 10.4% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.10.5
10.5 to 10.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.00.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0