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2023 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2023 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 Sep. 2024 Sep. 2025 2028
Mean point estimate 5.6 2.7 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.1
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 61 62 56 50 43 51
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 Sep. 2024 Sep. 2025 2028
<-1.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.60.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.70.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 1.40.8
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.5 2.32.1
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 1.8 4.5 3.5 5.94.9
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 4.3 8.9 6.5 11.610.7
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 8.3 18.8 11.5 18.821.3
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 16.9 26.9 20.5 24.327.7
2.5 to 2.9% 0.2 25.6 18.2 22.4 15.415.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.8 21.5 9.0 16.5 8.57.7
3.5 to 3.9% 2.2 12.5 4.9 9.1 4.73.8
4.0 to 4.4% 2.2 4.5 2.5 3.7 2.72.0
4.5 to 4.9% 9.1 2.0 1.5 1.9 1.71.1
>5.0% 85.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.41.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q4 core inflation forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 Sep. 2024 Sep. 2025 2028
Mean point estimate 5.1 2.9 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.0
Standard deviation 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 44 45 41 39 35 37
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 Sep. 2024 Sep. 2025 2028
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.20.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.20.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.50.6
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 1.11.9
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.5 3.75.4
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 2.1 8.3 5.0 9.312.1
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 6.5 21.5 12.2 23.524.9
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 15.0 31.7 21.8 29.629.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.2 27.5 17.1 22.6 15.113.4
3.0 to 3.4% 0.4 27.2 8.6 17.8 8.16.0
3.5 to 3.9% 2.2 12.0 4.4 8.8 4.42.6
4.0 to 4.4% 7.0 5.4 2.0 4.9 2.11.4
4.5 to 4.9% 25.6 2.0 1.1 2.7 1.20.8
>5.0% 64.7 1.1 0.9 1.9 1.01.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 2024 Q2 2025 Q2 2028
Mean point estimate 0.5 0.9 1.5 0.6 1.4 1.3
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 63 63 57 53 46 47
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 2024 Q2 2025 Q2 2028
<-1.0% 0.5 1.6 1.0 3.9 3.11.0
-1.0 to -0.6% 1.7 2.8 1.4 5.5 2.41.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 6.3 6.1 2.6 11.3 4.02.6
0.0 to 0.4% 28.5 14.5 6.1 21.7 8.66.6
0.5 to 0.9% 47.1 26.4 12.6 25.8 14.315.7
1.0 to 1.4% 11.3 26.6 24.3 16.0 22.827.0
1.5 to 1.9% 2.7 12.8 28.1 6.2 21.624.5
2.0 to 2.4% 1.0 4.7 13.5 2.8 11.811.5
2.5 to 2.9% 0.4 2.4 5.8 2.0 6.15.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 1.1 2.6 1.5 2.32.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.61.4
>4.0% 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 1.50.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2023 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2023 2024 2025 Aug. 2024 Aug. 2025 2028
Mean point estimate 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.5
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5
Number of replies 56 57 50 38 34 40
Probability distributions 2023 2024 2025 Aug. 2024 Aug. 2025 2028
<4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.20.8
4.0 to 4.4% 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.10.7
4.5 to 4.9% 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.3 2.01.7
5.0 to 5.4% 0.9 2.1 3.7 3.1 4.15.8
5.5 to 5.9% 2.7 6.8 9.1 8.1 10.213.2
6.0 to 6.4% 29.2 23.2 24.9 22.7 22.924.2
6.5 to 6.9% 53.4 35.1 28.3 30.6 25.022.3
7.0 to 7.4% 9.4 21.2 17.0 19.3 16.414.3
7.5 to 7.9% 2.2 6.6 7.7 8.1 9.17.9
8.0 to 8.4% 0.7 2.0 3.3 3.5 4.03.9
8.5 to 8.9% 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.3 1.92.1
9.0 to 9.4% 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.11.3
9.5 to 9.9% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.50.7
10.0 to 10.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.20.4
10.5 to 10.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0