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2022 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2022 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 Dec. 2022 Dec. 2023 2026
Mean point estimate 3.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0
Standard deviation 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Number of replies 61 60 48 49 47 50
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 Dec. 2022 Dec. 2023 2026
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.20.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.40.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.00.9
0.0 to 0.4% 0.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.83.0
0.5 to 0.9% 0.6 7.8 7.3 8.9 8.48.3
1.0 to 1.4% 2.3 16.9 14.2 19.4 16.815.0
1.5 to 1.9% 3.9 29.6 29.6 22.9 27.228.7
2.0 to 2.4% 11.4 23.5 24.5 17.7 23.422.8
2.5 to 2.9% 25.8 10.6 10.8 12.1 10.810.7
3.0 to 3.4% 30.0 3.9 5.1 6.9 4.34.7
3.5 to 3.9% 16.2 1.7 2.1 3.7 1.61.9
>4.0% 9.4 2.4 3.2 4.5 3.13.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q1 core inflation forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 Dec. 2022 Dec. 2023 2026
Mean point estimate 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.9
Standard deviation 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7
Number of replies 45 45 37 41 41 37
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 Dec. 2022 Dec. 2023 2026
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.60.9
0.0 to 0.4% 1.1 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.12.8
0.5 to 0.9% 3.7 6.6 8.2 10.4 8.18.6
1.0 to 1.4% 13.7 18.6 17.6 22.5 18.119.7
1.5 to 1.9% 29.2 35.6 32.8 29.6 32.130.3
2.0 to 2.4% 31.1 22.4 22.9 20.3 23.621.6
2.5 to 2.9% 12.3 7.9 8.2 7.1 8.38.3
3.0 to 3.4% 4.3 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.22.9
3.5 to 3.9% 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.11.2
>4.0% 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.0 3.43.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 2022 Q3 2023 Q3 2026
Mean point estimate 4.2 2.7 1.7 3.3 2.2 1.5
Standard deviation 0.7 0.8 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.3
Number of replies 62 61 50 51 48 48
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 2022 Q3 2023 Q3 2026
<-1.0% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.50.9
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.81.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.5 1.12.2
0.0 to 0.4% 0.2 1.0 3.5 0.7 2.05.3
0.5 to 0.9% 0.4 2.4 8.7 1.2 3.912.3
1.0 to 1.4% 0.5 4.9 19.0 2.0 10.422.7
1.5 to 1.9% 1.3 12.1 31.9 4.6 20.529.4
2.0 to 2.4% 2.9 22.4 19.1 10.5 24.913.5
2.5 to 2.9% 6.8 26.2 8.0 19.8 15.96.3
3.0 to 3.4% 13.6 15.7 3.7 23.0 9.53.1
3.5 to 3.9% 30.7 7.0 1.7 18.4 4.81.4
4.0 to 5.9% 34.6 3.6 1.6 12.6 2.71.3
6.0 to 7.9% 6.3 1.7 0.3 3.0 1.10.4
8.0 to 9.9% 1.5 0.9 0.0 0.8 0.30.1
>10.0% 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.7 0.50.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 Nov. 2022 Nov. 2023 2026
Mean point estimate 7.2 6.9 6.8 7.0 6.8 6.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6
Number of replies 55 54 42 39 38 41
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 Nov. 2022 Nov. 2023 2026
<5.5% 0.7 2.7 4.6 2.7 4.06.0
5.5 to 5.9% 1.7 5.3 7.8 4.9 7.910.1
6.0 to 6.4% 7.3 15.7 19.0 12.7 18.518.5
6.5 to 6.9% 26.8 29.9 26.8 27.1 25.825.0
7.0 to 7.4% 37.8 27.6 24.4 28.1 22.217.7
7.5 to 7.9% 17.9 10.7 9.0 14.0 11.39.5
8.0 to 8.4% 4.6 4.4 4.2 5.8 5.65.9
8.5 to 8.9% 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.6 2.23.1
9.0 to 9.4% 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.21.7
9.5 to 9.9% 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.61.2
10.0 to 10.4% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.20.6
10.5 to 10.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
11.0 to 11.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0