Manuela Storz
Macro Prud Policy&Financial Stability
- Division
Market-Based Finance
- Current Position
-
Financial Stability Expert
- Fields of interest
-
Financial Economics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- Education
- 2014-2022
PhD in Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- 2013-2014
MSc in Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- 2011-2013
MA in International Business, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- 2006-2011
BA in Economics and Politics of East Asia, Ruhr-Universität, Bochum, Germany
- Professional experience
- 2021-
Financial Stability Expert - Market-Based Finance Division, Directorate General Macroprudential Policy & Financial Stability, European Central Bank
- 2019-2021
ECB Graduate Programme Participant - Institutional & Sectoral Oversight Division, Directorate General Specialised Insititutions and LSIs; Euro Area External Sector Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 2018-2019
Research Analyst - Supply Side, Labour & Surveillance Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the decline in the share of non-banks’ liquid asset holdings and the implications of this for financial stability. In recent years, the share of cash equivalents and HQLA Level 1 holdings has significantly decreased, which may reduce the ability of non-banks to absorb shocks and meet payment obligations, especially under stressed market conditions. Valuation losses on HQLA Level 1 bonds, higher valuation gains on HQLA Level 2 equities and increased investment in less liquid assets have been the key drivers of this decline. Additionally, not all HQLAs retain their liquidity in times of stress. The growing share of HQLA Level 2 assets primarily consists of traded equities, which can suffer sharp valuation losses during periods of market stress and it may only be possible to liquidate them at a significant discount. Furthermore, growing non-bank reliance on indirect exposure to liquid assets via holdings of investment fund shares introduces additional risks, as their liquidity may be uncertain in stress periods. This creates the potential for financial contagion across non-bank financial intermediation sectors, highlighting the need for closer monitoring of liquidity risk and its broader systemic implications.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The number of older people in the EU has increased markedly in recent decades and is projected to go on rising. This trend may pose challenges to financial stability given the adjustments needed in both the real economy and the financial sector to adapt to the demands of an ageing society. Building on the extensive body of literature examining the impact of population ageing on the real economy, this special feature investigates the channels through which population ageing could elevate financial stability concerns in the financial and non-financial sectors, bearing in mind possible interdependencies across sectors. Comprehensive policy actions appear warranted to meet the challenges posed by an ageing population to financial stability. These can range from boosting productivity growth and labour force participation rates to ensuring the sustainability of pension systems by increasing market-based retirement savings, also in the context of the developing capital markets union.
- JEL Code
- D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
- 4 April 2025
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 13 February 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3026Details
- Abstract
- Institutional investors, such as investment funds, are playing an increasingly important role in residential real estate markets. This raises the possibility that their actions might drive aggregate market outcomes and may change how and which macrofinancial shocks transmit to house prices. In a Bayesian vector autoregression setting, we show that a demand shock from institutional investors has a positive and persistent effect on aggregate euro area house price growth and mortgage lending volumes. Institutional investors also increase their purchase activity following a loosening of monetary policy. Exploiting regional heterogeneity in eight euro area countries, we show in a panel regression setting that institutional investors weaken the link between house price growth and local economic fundamentals, but strengthen the sensitivity to monetary policy and financial market developments.
- JEL Code
- R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 5 November 2024
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 25Details
- Abstract
- This special focus examines the size and characteristics of bank lending to real estate investment funds (REIFs) in the euro area. Overall, bank lending to REIFs is limited in size, with financial stability risks appearing to be contained as a result. However, stress in the REIF sector could still expose banks to losses and could be exacerbated by the riskier nature of this loan portfolio. Finally, high financial leverage in the REIF sector could also pose risks, however, further analysis is required to assess possible risks from pockets of highly leveraged REIFs.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
R33 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
- 17 January 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2892Details
- Abstract
- The euro area insurance sector and its relevance for real economy financing have grown significantly over the last two decades. This paper analyses the effects of monetary policy on the size and composition of insurers’ balance sheets, as well as the implications of these effects for financial stability. We find that changes in monetary policy have a significant impact on both sector size and risk-taking. Insurers’ balance sheets grow materially after a monetary loosening, implying an increase of the sector’s financial intermediation capacity and an active transmission of monetary policy through the insurance sector. We also find evidence of portfolio re-balancing consistent with the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. After a monetary loosening, insurers increase credit, liquidity and duration risk-taking in their asset portfolios. Our results suggest that extended periods of low interest rates lead to rising financial stability risks among non-bank financial intermediaries.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 22 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The smooth absorption of sovereign debt issuance by the financial sector is essential for financial stability. Newly issued government debt has been absorbed smoothly so far in 2023, despite the absence of net central bank purchases. Sovereign debt absorption patterns have been in line with empirical evidence, which suggests that investors tend to increase their bond purchases when yields rise. Non-bank investors tend to absorb less issuance in times of elevated financial market uncertainty, while accounting and leverage requirements influence the absorption capacity of banks. Higher government funding needs, especially in an environment of high market volatility, can imply rising yield levels and spreads.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 31 May 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The presence of institutional investors, particularly investment funds, in euro area residential real estate (RRE) markets has increased markedly in recent years. Yet the implications for housing markets, as well as for financial stability more broadly, remain largely unstudied. This box shows that a positive (negative) demand shock from institutional investors has a positive (negative) and persistent impact on RRE prices between 2007 and 2021. Also, the link between local economic fundamentals and house price growth appears to weaken in regions with a greater presence of institutional investors. This may reinforce the build-up of financial vulnerabilities, as investor demand falls and the cycle turns. It also raises concerns that vulnerabilities in the investment fund sector may amplify any real estate market correction, with potential implications for the financial resilience of banks, households and exposed firms. For this reason, it is important to develop policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of real estate investment funds – such as lower redemption frequencies, longer notice and settlement periods, and longer minimum holding periods.
- JEL Code
- G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
R33 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
- 16 November 2022
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The euro area insurance sector and its relevance for real economy financing have grown significantly over the last two decades. This box examines the effects of higher interest rates on the size and composition of euro area insurers’ balance sheets, as well as the implications of these effects for financial stability. The results suggest that the size of insurers’ balance sheets decreases materially after a monetary tightening. Such tightening also induces shifts in asset holdings, which lead to a reduction in credit, liquidity and duration risk-taking. Medium-term financial stability risks in the insurance sector could therefore decline amid rising interest rates.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 11 October 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2104Details
- Abstract
- We show that the speed and type of corporate deleveraging depends on the interaction between corporate and financial sector health. Based on granular bank-firm data pertaining to small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) from five stressed and two non-stressed euro area economies, we show that “zombie” firms generally continued to lever up during the 2010–2014 period. Whereas relationships with stressed banks reduce SME leverage on average, we also show that zombie firms that are tied to weak banks in euro area periphery countries increase their indebtedness even further. Sustainable economic recovery therefore requires both: deleveraging of banks and firms.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 2020
- Journal of Banking & Finance