Overview of latest results – Housing and credit access
Source: CES.
Notes: Weighted estimates. Net percentages are obtained by subtracting the percentage of respondents indicating that credit access has (will) become easier from the percentage of respondents indicating that credit access has (will) become more difficult. The median is computed on the basis of a symmetric linear interpolation that accounts for rounding of responses. Mean values are winsorised at the 2nd and 98th percentiles of each survey round and country. Numbers on home prices are reported in expected annual percentage changes. In April 2022 the composition of the aggregates changed after the inclusion of five additional countries (IE, GR, AT, PT and FI).
In the qualitative question, respondents are asked: “In 12 months from now, what do you expect will happen to the price of your current home? By this, we mean the price that would be paid if your home were to be sold 12 months from now.” The possible responses are “Increase a lot”, “Decrease a lot”, “Increase a little”, “Decrease a little” and “Stay exactly the same”.
The open-ended (quantitative) question reads: “In 12 months from now, by about what percentage do you expect the price of your current home to be higher/lower?”
Home price expectations 12 months ahead – qualitative
Qualitative measure of home price expectations (forward-looking) (percentages of respondents)
Source: CES.
Notes: Weighted estimates. Net percentages are obtained by subtracting the percentage of respondents indicating that prices will decrease from the percentage of respondents indicating that prices will increase. In April 2022 the composition of the aggregates changed after the inclusion of five additional countries (IE, GR, AT, PT and FI).
Home price expectations 12 months ahead – pooled
Quantitative measure of home price expectations (forward-looking) (percentage changes)
Source: CES.
Notes: Weighted estimates. The median is computed on the basis of a symmetric linear interpolation that accounts for rounding of responses. Mean values are winsorised at the 2nd and 98th percentiles of each survey round and country. In April 2022 the composition of the aggregates changed after the inclusion of five additional countries (IE, GR, AT, PT and FI).
Mean home price expectations 12 months ahead – breakdown
Quantitative measure of home price expectations (forward-looking) (percentage changes)
Source: CES.
Notes: Weighted estimates. Mean values are winsorised at the 2nd and 98th percentiles of each survey round and country. In April 2022 the composition of the aggregates changed after the inclusion of five additional countries (IE, GR, AT, PT and FI).
In the question about mortgage interest rates, consumers are asked: “In 12 months from now, what do you think will be the interest rate on mortgages in the country you currently live in?”
Respondents are given the possibility to provide a numerical answer with up to one decimal point.
Mortgage interest rate expectations 12 months ahead – pooled
Quantitative measure of interest rate expectations (forward-looking) (percentages)
Source: CES.
Notes: Weighted estimates. The median is computed on the basis of a symmetric linear interpolation that accounts for rounding of responses. Mean values are winsorised at the 2nd and 98th percentiles of each survey round and country. In April 2022 the composition of the aggregates changed after the inclusion of five additional countries (IE, GR, AT, PT and FI).
Mortgage interest rate expectations 12 months ahead – breakdown
Quantitative measure of interest rate expectations (forward-looking) (percentages)
Source: CES.
Notes: Weighted estimates. Mean values are winsorised at the 2nd and 98th percentiles of each survey round and country. In April 2022 the composition of the aggregates changed after the inclusion of five additional countries (IE, GR, AT, PT and FI).
In the backward-looking question, respondents are asked: “Compared with your household’s situation 12 months ago, do you think it is generally harder or easier these days for your household to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, car loans, student loans and mortgages)?”
In the forward-looking question, respondents are asked: “Looking ahead, do you think that 12 months from now it will generally be harder or easier for your household to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, car loans, student loans and mortgages) than it is these days?”
The possible responses are “Much harder”, “Somewhat harder”, “Equally easy/hard”, “Somewhat easier” and “Much easier”. Up to CES Wave 8 (August 2020), the possible responses also included a “Not applicable” option.
Perceived credit access over the previous 12 months – pooled
Qualitative measure of credit access (backward-looking) (percentages of respondents)
Source: CES.
Notes: Weighted estimates. Net percentages are obtained by subtracting the percentage of respondents indicating that access to credit is easier from the percentage of respondents indicating that access to credit is harder. In April 2022 the composition of the aggregates changed after the inclusion of five additional countries (IE, GR, AT, PT and FI).
Expected credit access over the next 12 months – pooled
Qualitative measure of credit access (forward-looking) (percentages of respondents)
Source: CES.
Notes: Weighted estimates. Net percentages are obtained by subtracting the percentage of respondents indicating that access to credit will become easier from the percentage of respondents indicating that access to credit will become harder. In April 2022 the composition of the aggregates changed after the inclusion of five additional countries (IE, GR, AT, PT and FI).
In this quarterly question, respondents are asked: “During the last 3 months, has your household applied for any of the following types of credit?” The possible responses are “A mortgage”, “A loan to purchase a car or other vehicle”, “Another type of consumer loan”, “A leasing contract”, “A credit card”, “A loan for education purposes”, “An increase in the limit of an existing loan” and “Refinancing of your current mortgage”.
The following charts show the share of respondents indicating that they applied for at least one of these credit categories.
Credit applications over the previous three months – pooled
Qualitative measure of credit applications (backward-looking) (percentages of respondents)
Source: CES.
Notes: Weighted estimates. The line shows the percentage of respondents who had applied for at least one category of credit in the previous three months. In April 2022 the composition of the aggregates changed after the inclusion of five additional countries (IE, GR, AT, PT and FI).
Credit applications over the previous three months – breakdown
Qualitative measure of credit applications (backward-looking) (percentages of respondents)
Source: CES.
Notes: Weighted estimates. The lines show the percentage of respondents who had applied for at least one category of credit in the previous three months. In April 2022 the composition of the aggregates changed after the inclusion of five additional countries (IE, GR, AT, PT and FI).